Tonight I’ll be blogging live during the VP debate. With fact checking, witty remarks, and the occasional tally of points in the VPRO debate drinking game. Keep looking to see my by the minute or so updates.
Let’s get drunk and pick the second most important member of the federal government.
8:03 Palin’s in a lovely black evening suit. Like a funeral. A funeral for the dignity of the office of the Vice President.
8:05 Biden: “Barack Obama laid out four basic criteria for any kind of rescue plan here. He, first of all, said there has to be oversight. We’re not going to write any check to anybody unless there’s oversight for the — of the secretary of Treasury.”
Everybody wants oversight except for Sec. Paulson, so the idea that either candidate is taking credit for the oversight provisions is ludicrous.
8:07 Palin: “Two years ago, remember, it was John McCain who pushed so hard with the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reform measures. He sounded that warning bell.”
It’s been a bad time Gov. Palin. A very bad time. McCain did push for reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, so that’s not a lie. The very rhetoric of the McCain campaign about McCain’s leadership is absolute bullshit. It always goes “Democrats suck. McCain is above of partisan politics.” In the same fucking breath.
8:08 Biden: “Two weeks before that, [McCain] said George — we’ve made great economic progress under George Bush’s policies.”
Biden will continue to tie McCain to Bush throughout this thing.
8:08 Palin:”John McCain, in referring to the fundamental of our economy being strong, he was talking to and he was talking about the American workforce. And the American workforce is the greatest in this world, with the ingenuity and the work ethic that is just entrenched in our workforce.”
This doubleback about how McCain meant the ingenuity of the American worker when he said “the fundamentals of the economy are strong,” is absolute bullshit. When he said the “fundamentals of our economy,” he meant the fundamentals of our economy, which are the banks and financial services.
8:09 Palin: “Darn right it was the predator lenders, who tried to talk Americans into thinking that it was smart to buy a $300,000 house if we could only afford a $100,000 house. ”
This was not predator lenders, the whole argument behind corrupt lending practices is COMPLETELY FUCKING RETARDED, because the implication is that banks made bad loans to an excessive extent on purpose. Banks make money when loans are repaid, to say that this crisis was malicious is totally retarded. There was a faulty incentive structure associated with the mortgage-backed-security problems, but to reason that large banks are inherently evil and corrupt is a lie. Banks are value neutral, their job is just to make money, and that doesn’t necessarily mean greed.
8:11 Biden “As a matter of fact, John recently wrote an article in a major magazine saying that he wants to do for the health care industry deregulate it and let the free market move like he did for the banking industry.”
McCain did say that he wanted to deregulate the healthcare industry in “Contingencies” magazine and used the financial services deregulation as an example of success.
8:12 Palin: “Now, Barack Obama and Sen. Biden also voted for the largest tax increases in U.S. history.”
Palin claims that Biden and Obama voted for the largest tax increases in American history. This is one of those conservative logic moments where voting against tax cuts is the same as voting to raise taxes. These are not the same thing.
Biden’s response? “…the vote she’s referring to, John McCain voted the exact same way. It was a budget procedural vote. John McCain voted the same way. It did not raise taxes.”
8:14 Biden keeps repeating that Governor Palin “did not answer.” Apparently this is his strategy for showing Palin’s inexperience.
8:15 Ifill: “Sen. Biden, we want to talk about taxes, let’s talk about taxes. You proposed raising taxes on people who earn over $250,000 a year. The question for you is, why is that not class warfare…”
Gwen Ifill just said that a tax hike on people who make $250,000 or more per year might be “class warfare.” Didn’t Bill O’Reilly tell me last night that Ifill wanted Obama to win so she could sell more books? Or was that just bullshit so that when Palin falls on her face, conservative pundits can blame it on a “bias” that they invented for the moderator?
8:17 Palin: “But when you talk about Barack’s plan to tax increase affecting only those making $250,000 a year or more, you’re forgetting millions of small businesses that are going to fit into that category. ”
Businesses are taxed on profit, not $250,000 worth of revenue. Also, Palin’s reported household income for 2007 was less than $250,000. Even Palin herself would not be hit by this tax hike on the wealthy.
8:20 Palin: Obama wants a trillion of new spending.
Both candidates spending plans were analyzed by the independent Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Both candidates plans were about equal on the projected effects of their respective spending plans. Read it here.
8:24 Palin “And that’s why Tillerson at Exxon and Mulva at ConocoPhillips, bless their hearts, they’re doing what they need to do, as corporate CEOs…”
Palin just mentioned the names of two different energy company’s CEOs to demonstrate that being Gov. of Alaska makes her an energy expert. She’s also implying that she deserves credit for the fact that Alaska naturally has natural gas and oil deposits.
8:25 More than 3/4ths of Alaska state revenue is tied to oil.
8:26 Palin: “…has been more and more revelation made aware now to Americans about the corruption and the greed on Wall Street.”
Corruption and greed again! ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME? Is McCain Palin actually suggesting that they are going to destroy the profit motive?
8:27 Palin is a millionaire, don’t forget it when she says that she’s “main street” or “joe six pack.”
8:29 Palin is going to keep hammering energy, the goal is to change the tone of the conversation and to say that Palin is an energy expert. Also, we rely on foreign oil because it’s cheapest. If we subsidize the oil industry, it will end up being cheaper at the pump, but then covered with tax dollars, which means that it will actually cost Americans more to drill domestically.
8:31 Is it just me, or does Palin bring up Alaska’s oil and natural gas as a qualification more often than McCain brings up his POW status?
8:32 The “all of the above approach” is another example of where Republicans are making a complicated issue and presenting it as something with an easy, intuitive response. “What should we do about energy?” America asks. “Everything,” Republicans respond. Well that must be the best choice, right?
8:34 Palin: “The chant is “drill, baby, drill.” And that’s what we hear all across this country in our rallies because people are so hungry for those domestic sources of energy to be tapped into.”
Drill baby, drill. That is the chant of Americans. Because they don’t understand that exploratory drilling takes ten years to make a noticeable impact on fuel prices, and I’m hoping that in ten years we no longer have regular unleaded at the gas station, or Hummers for that matter.
8:36 YAY GAY MARRIAGE! (I never claimed to be an unbiased observer. Although I think I could argue that Gwen Ifill was setting up Biden by asking the question). Both candidates dealt with this issue as much as was necessary in an election that ought to be about the Economy, Iraq, and Energy.
8:37 Palin’s promise against gay marriage is a direct appeal to the hard core republican base. It’s what she’s on the ticket for. They might not want to “prohibit” rights for visitation by gay partners, but she certainly won’t fight for it.
8:39 Palin said that the war in Iraq was “a mission from God.”
8:40 Palin ” Barack Obama voted against funding troops there after promising that he would not do so.”
This attack on Barack Obama as voting against funding the troops (he voted against a funding measure because it had no timetable for withdrawal) is totally stupid. McCain also voted against funding the troops (in a bill that did have troop withdrawal timetables, as Biden just pointed out). The idea that Americans can’t understand the nuance of this is totally insulting.
8:43 Palin: “You guys opposed the surge. The surge worked. Barack Obama still can’t admit the surge works.”
The surge “worked” in the sense that it reduced violence. It didn’t make Iraq more ready for us to leave. Further, the idea that a timetable to leave is the same as surrender is completely fucking idiotic.
Republicans keep saying that if we pick a day to leave Iraq, then everything will go to shit.
So what’s their plan? Leave in the middle of the night and the Iraqi people will wake up with a fucking note on the fridge?
Dear Iraq,
Sorry we didn’t say goodbye.
Good Luck!
8:45 Pakistan is best controlled by increasing the relative power of India, which we could do if we focused more on trading with India (currently our sixteenth largest trading partner behind Belgium) instead of China (currently our number two trading partner behind Dan Akroyd… I mean Canada). Neither candidate has even really mentioned India in the entire campaign to my knowledge. You know, where one sixth of the world population exists? World’s largest democracy? Am I the only one who cares about India? (Me and Fareed Zakaria). By the way, India’s recent economic growth? It’s the same type of “bottom up” growth that Biden and Obama are talking about. And it’s working.
8:47 Palin: “when we’re dealing with Ahmadinejad as a leader of Iran. Iran claiming that Israel as he termed it, a stinking corpse, a country that should be wiped off the face of the earth.”
Ahmadinejad is not the leader of Iran. The leader of Iran is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader. And Ahmadinejad talks a big game on the world stage, but he is not dangerous unless Khamenei turns against us. Further, if we wanted to remove Ahmadinejad, we should be really, really friendly with him. The more pictures there are of him with an American president, the faster he’ll lose popularity in Iran.
*** Later in the debate: “The fact of the matter is, it surprises me that Senator McCain doesn’t realize that Ahmadinejad does not control the security apparatus in Iran. The theocracy controls the security apparatus, number one.”***
8:50 Palin: “Barack Obama has said he would be willing to meet with- without preconditions being met first.”
By the way, the way that Caeser was able to politically position himself to make war with Pompeii even though Pompeii had accepted Caeser’s offer of truce (thereby swinging public opinion against war)?
Pompeii refused to meet Caeser (without preconditions).
Thus fell the Republic of Rome forever.
8:52 Palin: “…an ally like we have in Israel…We will support Israel. ”
Palin’s dick sucking of Israel through the campaign is not only stupid; it’s pandering to the Jewish voters of (must-win) Florida, it’s absurd. Remember when Israel bombed the living shit out of Lebanon and strengthened Hezbellah? And then Palin recently said that we should “never second guess Israel.”
8:56 Biden: “the issue is, how different is John McCain’s policy going to be than George Bush’s? I haven’t heard anything yet.”
Biden ties McCain Palin to Bush again. The real loser of this debate so far is George W. Bush.
8:57 Palin: “Our nuclear weaponry here in the U.S. is used as a deterrent. And that’s a safe, stable way to use nuclear weaponry.”
Palin just said that the US nuclear arsenal is used responsively, to protect the world.
Our 14,000 nuclear weapons.
8:58 Biden: “We need to spend more money on the infrastructure in Afghanistan.”
Afghanistan is the central front on the war on terror. I personally agree. The Republican line that Al Qaeda said that Iraq is the central front of the war on terror is completely stupid. It means that if we agree with Al Qaeda that Iraq is the central front of the war on terror, THAT WE ARE LETTING OUR ENEMIES CHOOSE OUR BATTLES. Fundamental strategy: pick your battles. Don’t let your enemies. Al Qaeda wanted us to fight in Iraq, because they thought a war of attrition on public opinion would eventually force a vietnam type defeat, destabilize the region, and train a new generation of terrorists.
9:02 Darfur is the greatest current travesty in the world right now, and involvement their could drastically improve the reputation of this country on the national stage. Our reputation that George Bush has horrifically tarnished.
9:04 Palin: “Oh, yeah, it’s so obvious I’m a Washington outsider. And someone just not used to the way you guys operate. Because here you voted for the war and now you oppose the war. You’re one who says, as so many politicians do, I was for it before I was against it or vice- versa.”
Palin is saying that politicians who change their minds are feeble, and attacks the kind of “flip-flopping” that she’s accusing both Barack and Biden of. Kind of like how she sought the Bridge to nowhere, and then turned against it when it turned out that it might be politically dangerous. Besides, the work of a great mind is to adapt to the way the world changes, not pick a position and myopically defend it. In his recent foreign policy and economic moves, even W. seems to have learned this lesson.
9:05 They’ve been talking about Darfur for like five minutes now and neither of them has had the balls to say that the biggest supporter of the Sudanese government is China.
9:06 Biden: “John McCain said exactly what Dick Cheney said…”
The only thing worse than being associated with George W. Bush is being associated with Dick Cheney leading up to the Iraq war.
9:07 Palin: “John McCain knows how to win a war.”
Why, because of his experience, of course. In our greatest military failure ever.
9:09 Biden: “And a policy that would reject the Bush Doctrine of preemption and regime change…”
Biden brings up the Bush Doctrine. Let’s see if Palin has learned what it is yet.
9:10 Palin: “Just everyday working class Americans saying, you know, government, just get out of my way.”
Yeah, ask the middle class if they’re better off now then they were when Bill Clinton was president. (They’re not).
9:11 Palin: ” Say it ain’t so, Joe, there you go again pointing backwards again.”
Palin keeps saying that the Democrats are focusing too much on George W. Bush. If there’s one thing to learn from the Bush administration, it’s that those who don’t study history are doomed to repeat it. With Sarah Palin as their Vice President.
9:14 Palin: “Of course, we know what a vice president does. And that’s not only to preside over the Senate and will take that position very seriously also.”
Palin has learned the responsibilities of the VP. Hurrah! Oh, and Palin is going to be our energy Czar apparently?
9:15 As Biden describes what he thinks he’ll do as VP, he’s really saying “Not be Dick Cheney.”
9:17 Biden: “Vice President Cheney has been the most dangerous vice president we’ve had probably in American history.”
Biden is right, Cheney is essentially Darth Vader with the voice of the Penguin from the original Batman TV show.
9:21 Biden: “Look, I understand what it’s like to be a single parent. When my wife and daughter died and my two sons were gravely injured, I understand what it’s like as a parent to wonder what it’s like if your kid’s going to make it.
I understand what it’s like to sit around the kitchen table with a father who says, “I’ve got to leave, champ, because there’s no jobs here. I got to head down to Wilmington. And when we get enough money, honey, we’ll bring you down.”
Biden just choked up talking about how his wife and daughter had died, and that means he wins. I don’t mean that cynically, but we haven’t seen this much humanity out of Biden in the campaign so far, and this is going to give him a serious push.
9:22 Palin: “We have got to win the wars.”
Palin just said that McCain is the man to “win the wars” which most Americans agree with, still. But when it comes to economy, Obama has a 14 point lead. McCain has also said repeatedly, in various forms, that the war on terror will expand to other countries, “There’s going to be other wars.” Just like the secret plan to end the war in Vietnam, and that plan was to expand the war into Cambodia.
9:23 Biden: “Look, the maverick — let’s talk about the maverick John McCain is. And, again, I love him. He’s been a maverick on some issues, but he has been no maverick on the things that matter to people’s lives.”
Biden is right, the area where McCain is a maverick has always been in his spitting upon the religious right (which he stopped doing) and on campaign finance reform, which most Americans aren’t directly affected by in their day to day lives.
9:25 Biden: “That’s why I led the fight against Judge Bork. Had he been on the court, I suspect there would be a lot of changes that I don’t like and the American people wouldn’t like, including everything from Roe v. Wade to issues relating to civil rights and civil liberties.”
Biden is bringing up the court since Palin couldn’t name another supreme court decision besides Roe v. Wade.
9:26 Palin refuses to say that she has changed a deep seated belief in response to changing circumstances. The fact that she’s proud of not compromising is frightening. But then that’s part of the Republican platform, that they never change their mind.
Except for all the times that they do, and just pretend like they didn’t.
9:29 Palin: “Or you support a ticket that supports policies that will kill jobs by increasing taxes. And that’s what the track record shows, is a desire to increase taxes, increase spending, a trillion-dollar spending proposal that’s on the table. That’s going to hurt our country, and saying no to energy independence.”
Democrats are not saying “no” to energy independence, they want new technologies to make oil obsolete. Also, 70% of Americans describe themselves as “middle class.” So this pandering that both sides are doing with their “direct” appeals to the middle class is really just plain populism.
9:32 I’m pretty sure that what Biden just said “Woza America.” Oh, no he said “get up.”
9:33 The first words out of Couric’s mouth after the debate, that the headlines might be that Palin didn’t embarrass herself.
Conclusions and predictions:
Palin performed far beyond expectations. Well done. That’ll be the story for the next two days. Three days from now, when updated polls include the three day rolling average that includes this debate and a day of coverage, it’ll turn out that although the image of Palin improved, Biden won the debate anyway.
The two clips that will get a lot of play are going to be Biden choking up about his family tragedy, and Palin’s response to what she thinks her role would be as vice president. This debate might cut into Obama’s lead in Virginia, but widen it in Ohio and New Hampshire.
Guns didn’t come up, so Colorado probably won’t move much. The gay stuff might pull on the Democrats, but hopefully their “we’re for Gay rights but against gay marriage” will fully deflect the side track that was the election of 2004.
Overall, this debate made Palin look significantly less retarded, but I don’t think it’ll make a strong impact on the way undecided voters swing in the final two weeks.
And tomorrow I’ll wake up to the the shit storm of spin that actually decides what happened.